Here is the real story and the naked truth about Narendra Modi as a brand and the brand of politics he plays, the piquant state of the BJP and the Sangh, and much more…
Narendra Modi fought elections in Gujarat, won the elections and after winning he is now being viewed as a candidate for the Prime Minister’s post. It is not necessary to do an analysis of Narendra Modi’s victory just a cursory overview will suffice – because he has emerged once again as the most dominant candidate in the Bharatiya Janata Party for the biggest ‘chair’ in the country. Actually, the atmospherics are such that no other obvious candidate can be seen in the Bharatiya Janata Party. But the authenticity of Narendra Modi’s victory must be analysed. Before the elections he had said that I will return with many more seats than I have already won. During the elections, an image was created of Narendra Modi as the ‘ultimate truth’ in Gujarat and that from there he will chart the way to become the country’s ‘ultimate truth’, because there is no one else like him. But the real truth is different. The reality is that Narendra Modi got fewer seats than he had claimed he would win. In such a situation, if we measure Narendra Modi by the principles he had established and the standards and criteria he had decided upon, we will see that he did not succeed in measuring up to them. In exactly the same way that a thing costs 100 paise and you have just 85 paise so you are unable to purchase it, Narendra Modi could not stay level with the standards he had set and announced for the post of Prime Minister of the country. In spite of this, the country’s media first described him as the ‘ultimate truth’ in Gujarat and that same media is now engaged in the exercise of describing him as the country’s ‘ultimate truth’.
In that way, three agencies are working for Narendra Modi to build his image and it was as part of this exercise that a team of delegates, including senators, arrived from America. They were invited to visit Gujarat, meet Narendra Modi and see Gujarat for themselves. The plan was that after meeting Narendra Modi, they would be induced to praise him and in reciprocation something or the other should be given to them. It was published in American newspapers that American delegates had come to meet Narendra Modi and for this they had been paid several million dollars. How much truth there is in this news is not known, because Indian newspapers could not unravel anything about the issue. The surprising thing is that television channels did not want to pursue the matter at all and Narendra Modi’s office maintained silence over it. But yes, American newspapers did that write that Narendra Modi’s friends in America who have big money and who have been running an openly declared process to build a lobby in America for Narendra Modi were the ones who had organised the delegates trip.
Narendra Modi had created an environment in the country for the Prime Minister’s post even before the Gujarat elections. He sent a message everywhere that he will win more number of seats and will be a candidate of the first order for the post of Prime Minister. For this, he bulldozed his colleagues in the Bharatiya Janata Party, silenced people in the Sangh, and in Gujarat distributed all the tickets
according to his own wishes. The surprising thing is that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Parliamentary Board did not even pick up the courage to make changes in the ticket distribution.
Narendra Modi had created an environment in the country for the Prime Minister’s post even before the Gujarat elections. He sent a message everywhere that he will win an increased number of seats and will be a candidate of the first order for the post of Prime Minister. For this, he bulldozed his colleagues in the Bharatiya Janata Party, silenced people in the Sangh, and in Gujarat distributed all the tickets according to his own wishes. The surprising thing is that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Parliamentary Board did not even pick up the courage to make any cancellations or changes in the ticket distribution, which is to say that Narendra Modi did everything according to his own calculations and therefore got success too in Gujarat. In the politics of Gujarat, Keshubhai Patel became irrelevant because the Patel community as well did not support him.
The reason why Narendra Modi has been winning elections in Gujarat and will continue to win are those voters who are not Muslims and who believe that with Narendra Modi at the helm in Gujarat, Muslims will remain confined within their own circle. They are very afraid of those political parties who are believed to be secular. It seems to the majority community in Gujarat or non-Muslims that if Narendra Modi loses and someone other than him wins, then riots like Naroda Patiya will start again in Gujarat and once again they will have to live in an atmosphere in which riots can occur. The majority community is very reassured because in the last 10 years there have been almost no riots or very few riots in Gujarat. Actually, the majority community in Gujarat is somewhat at variance and somewhat wary of the parties ruling at the Centre. It seems to them that when parties like the Congress, Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party speak of secularism, their meaning is to give a free hand to the Muslims. They cannot keep the Muslim communities under control, so their victory will mean a message being sent to the Muslim community that it can now do whatever it pleases. It is because of these reasons that the majority community or the
non-Muslims of Gujarat will always ensure that Narendra Modi wins the elections. This is what it seems from an analysis at the moment. The majority community of Gujarat is giving its votes to the brand name of Narendra Modi because till Narendra Modi is there, they will not have to face problems. But a win in Gujarat is one thing, and winning in the country quite another.
For a win in the country, Narendra Modi has changed not only his tone, but also his slogan. He says that because of bad governance good management is not being carried out in the country, therefore good management through good governance is very necessary. This is being successfully marketed too by Narendra Modi, whether it is in a college in Delhi or whether it is a message for America through video conferencing. The question arises here whether Narendra Modi’s colleagues are saying the same thing. People around Narendra Modi say that they will build a Ram temple and abolish Section 370. In other words Narendra Modi’s colleagues have started speaking the old language of the Bharatiya Janata Party once again. This language belongs to the time when Atal Bihari Vajpayee had not yet become the Prime Minister.
If we leave aside the talk of Modi’s colleagues who call the Hindutva agenda their main agenda, let us glance at the partners of the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is believed that in the coming Lok Sabha elections, the Congress Party will be on one side and the Bharatiya Janata Party on the other side. However, Mamata Banerjee can also side with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Because of conflicts in the States, a mutually opposing group can side with the Bharatiya Janata Party, like Mayawati or Mulayam Singh in Uttar Pradesh –one of them can go with the Bharatiya Janata Party. In Tamil Nadu, Karunanidhi or Jayalalitha – one of them can be with the BJP. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu or Jagan Mohan Reddy – one of them can be with the BJP.
If the Bharatiya Janata Party declares Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate, then first of all it will have to bear the loss of its alliance partner — the Janata Dal-U. In fact, the Janata Dal- U has told the Bharatiya Janata Party many times that if it believes in Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate, then it will have to look for another path. That is why Nitish Kumar has put forward the subject of giving special status to Bihar. When the BJP declares Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate, and the Janata Dal-U directly snaps ties, at the same juncture Mamata Banerjee and all the parties in the States, whether it is Uttar Pradesh, whether it is Tamil Nadu and whether it is Andhra Pradesh – all will be seen standing at a distance from the Bharatiya Janata Party. Neither will Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and his party support Narendra Modi. All of them have conveyed this to the Bharatiya Janata Party from time to time. Given this situation, only the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal are left with the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Let us now see what happens if the Bharatiya Janata Party makes Narendra Modi its Prime Ministerial candidate. If Modi gives the slogan of growth, governance and secularism, then those staunch, die-hard, orthodox supporters of the Bharatiya Janata party or Narendra Modi who believe in Hindutva will separate from the Bharatiya Janata Party immediately. The Muslims may or may not come with the Bharatiya Janata Party, but the orthodox Hindu will immediately move far away from the party and this is the biggest problem for Narendra Modi. No Prime Ministerial candidate can ignore the 20 per cent Muslim population. And if Narendra Modi uses soft language for the Muslims, his fate will also be exactly the same as that of Lal Krishna Advani after he described Jinnah as ‘secular’. In reality the hard liner Hindu has been against Advani from that time and due to which a feud began between the Sangh and Advani. Narendra Modi too may have to undergo and grapple with exactly the same situation.
The Sangh has supported Modi because it seems to them that he is the face of Hindutva and therefore the Sangh chief, Mohan Bhagwat has said that they will build a magnificent Ram temple and they will build it according to Hindu beliefs. This obviously means that the Sangh will take the elections towards the questions and issue of Mandir-Masjid or Hindu-Muslim, and Narendra Modi adopting a style contrary to that of the Sangh will speak the language of growth, development and governance. There is a contradiction in Modi’s strategy of development and the Sangh’s strategy of constructing a Ram temple. And that is, except the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal, all other parties, in the name of Muslim appeasement which the BJP vigorously publicises will stand with the Congress. In exactly the same way as in Uttar Pradesh, after the Bharatiya Janata Party vigorously publicised that after the elections a coalition Government would be formed between it and Mayawati, the Muslims unitedly solidly and gave their votes en masse to Mulayam Singh.
The danger for the Bharatiya Janata Party is that if the people of the country feel that the dream of a storm of development being shown to it by Narendra Modi is actually a part of the strategy of the Sangh, then the results in this election too will be unexpected, and 20 per cent votes will one-sidedly probably go in favour of Congress and in that situation the three figure numbers of the Bharatiya Janata Party will shrink to just two figure numbers. Let’s suppose the three figures will hold, even then the chances of the Congress to form the Government become stronger. However, this election can also prove to be a Waterloo for Narendra Modi, but he has not yet got the name of the Prime Ministerial candidate announced. As yet, he has only in a way seized control of the organisation. When the question of the Prime Minister’s post arises, the Bharatiya Janata Party should once again remember history. When the matter arose of making Lal Krishna Advani the Prime Minister, then Rajnath Singh put forward his claim and asked, ‘Why can’t I become the Prime Minister?’. Right now, Rajnath Singh is moving together with Narendra Modi and perhaps that is why at every function Narendra Modi is seen garlanding Rajnath Singh. Looking at the two, it seems as if Ram and Lakshman are lovingly meeting each other, but when bullets will be fired during the bid for the Prime Minister’s post, then whether Rajnath Singh will stand in front or whether he will make Narendra Modi stand in front, so that Narendra Modi gets demolished, who knows?
A leading senior worker of the Sangh told me something very major and serious. He said that in the Sangh and the Bharatiya Janata Party, Modi is behaving like a terrorist. He gave many instances and examples of Modi’s ‘terrorism’. The first example he gave was that of Sanjay Joshi – that he should be given no role. Second, Narendra Modi played a role in who in the party will be given what responsibility. At this time, in even the smallest matter in the Bharatiya Janata Party, it is in a way Narendra Modi who is giving directions and orders. At this time, nothing in terms of what to do seems to be striking anyone in the BJP. All of them are unable to understand what sort of alliances they should be making. Therefore whatever Narendra Modi is saying is being done in the party. Some people from the Sangh itself told me that Narendra Modi has gained expertise and mastery in saying one thing and then changing and going back on it. He told me that recently when Narendra Modi called Manmohan Singh a night watchman, he was lavishly praised in the Bharatiya Janata Party, but when a lawyer filed a case against him, he immediately back-tracked from his statement. He averred that he hadn’t said anything like that, even though what he had stated was aired many times by television channels.
A loyal worker of the Sangh says that in minor-major politics, picking-up- and-discarding or dumping is a different matter, but when he wants to establish a claim to the post of the Prime Minister of the country, the way Modi says something and then denies what he has said, it seems that he is not a very fit or worthy candidate for the Prime Minister’s post.