Surveys a Booster for Modi : Will Predictions Turn Into Actual Results?

will-predictions-turn-into-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is fast turning out to be a liability for the Congress. A diminishing credit rating of his Government at the Centre is affecting the fortunes of the Congress party in all four States going to the polls shortly  Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Mizoram is the fifth State that will be going to the polls. An opinion poll and survey conducted by C-Voter & Times Now concluded that the Congress would not win in any of the four States. If these predictions turn into actual results for the BJP, then its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who towers over Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi in these surveys, would get just the right kind of galvanizing booster dose the challenger desires to take on the Congress in the big battle of 2014, the Parliamentary elections. The polls show victory for Modi. Another poll survey by Cfore for CNN-IBN and Hindustan Times, however, suggests a slightly optimistic situation for the Congress in Delhi even if it loses some seats to the BJP and to the nascent Aam Admi Party. It gives 32-37 seats to the Congress, 22-27 to the BJP and 7-12 seats to AAP. In the last election, the Congress had won 43 seats and BJP 23. Delhi is turning out to be an interesting, even complicated battle ground. The entry of AAP has changed the shape of the polity in the city State from bi-polar to triangular. Net results of some other opinion polls including C-Voter’s latest survey that have been conducted so far suggest that as it moves closer to elections in Delhi, Sheila Dikshit is gradually losing ground despite holding a high personal rating. She may have to pay the price for the follies of the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre. The BJP is slowly catching up, but bereft of a strong face it is still not in a position to gain a majority. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party could just play the spoiler. He has gained some goodwill but how much of that translates into votes remains to be seen.
Delhi may not be a full-fledged State but the importance of who controls the city Government lies in the old wisdom – whosoever wins Delhi gets to rule the nation. There has been only one exception to this, in 1999, but since then the Congress has been on an upswing both in Assembly and in seven Parliamentary seats in Delhi. In the last Assembly elections, the Congress won 43 out of 70 Assembly seats and all Parliamentary seats. The C-Voter survey makes an interesting point  Manmohan Singh may still have numbers in Lok Sabha to survive but he has completely lost popular confidence. The survey says only 3 per cent of Delhi’s people approve of Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister as against a whopping 55 per cent for Modi. Rahul Gandhi is preferred by 18 per cent people. In Madhya Pradesh the credit rating for Manmohan Singh is a miserly 8 per cent, for Modi the rating is 59 per cent and 16 per cent for Rahul Gandhi. In Rajasthan only 8 per cent are said to be in approval for Singh, 48 per cent for Modi and 17 per cent for Rahul. The survey results in all these four States suggest that if Parliamentary elections were held immediately, the incumbent Congress regime at the Centre is on shaky ground. That certainly is bad news for Rahul Gandhi and his team. After the anointment of Narendra Modi as the opposition NDA’s prime Ministerial candidate, questions are being asked why Congress is shy of announcing Rahul Gandhi’s name for a Presidential-style fight. The poll predictions for Rajasthan where both Modi and Rahul Gandhi have kicked off campaigns for the BJP and the Congress respectively suggest a clear victory for BJP with 118 seats in the 200-member Assembly. The Congress could get 64, dropping from the 96 seats it won last time. The BJP’s chief Ministerial candidate Vasundhara Raje’s approval rating of 44 per cent has gone up substantially higher than chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s rating at 26 per cent. In Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chouhan with his friendly next door neighbour image, is poised for a comfortable win, a third consecutive term for BJP. The C-Voter predicts 130 seats for BJP in the 230-member Assembly. The BJP could be down 13 seats from the previous tally of 130. The Congress may be slightly up from 71 to 84 but still far away from winning. Similarly in Chhattisgarh, Dr Raman Singh’s effective distribution of subsidized foodgains and cooked meals is keeping him in good esteem among the people. The survey suggests that he will get a majority with 47 seats in the 90-member assembly. The plus for the BJP in these States is a strong regional face in Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh. Narendra Modi’s elevation may not be a big influence in these three States but can work for the BJP in Delhi where it does not have a worthwhile face to challenge Sheila Dikshit or Arvind Kejriwal. Another interesting feature that comes out is that the BSP, which had made its presence felt in all these States, could lose further grounds in a sharpened BJP versus Congress contest. The good news for Modi is that the survey predicts the BJP could make substantive gains in Rajasthan where it had fared badly in the last elections, and in Delhi where it scored zero. If that happens, the advancement of the Modi juggernaut to Raisina Hill would depend on UP and Bihar. The two States together have 120 seats and the BJP currently has only 22 of these. Thanks to the Samajwadi Party’s misadventures and mishandling of incidents such as Muzaffarnagar, momentum is catching up fast in UP for the BJP.
– Firstpost : Booster for Modi : Congress losing in poll bound states


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